Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.564750 0.654984 0.751935 0.863491 0.987943 1.122143 1.277419
2025-03-16 0.412155 0.525648 0.656649 0.817717 1.009023 1.227561 1.494574
2025-03-23 0.324898 0.454054 0.613576 0.821970 1.083634 1.397789 1.799621
2025-03-30 0.236025 0.364667 0.535549 0.773330 1.089158 1.487391 2.019741
2025-04-06 0.176221 0.301984 0.481785 0.747905 1.120760 1.612734 2.297225
2025-04-13 0.128971 0.247038 0.429383 0.716736 1.141138 1.726177 2.571496
2025-04-20 0.100083 0.213809 0.402912 0.718742 1.207913 1.908762 2.955078
2025-04-27 0.075497 0.181439 0.371833 0.709220 1.257041 2.071932 3.327154
2025-05-04 0.058663 0.158587 0.352278 0.715222 1.330700 2.277742 3.777605
2025-05-11 0.044903 0.137522 0.331616 0.716210 1.396651 2.478172 4.236556
2025-05-18 0.031288 0.111361 0.295154 0.683040 1.402097 2.585755 4.564719
2025-05-25 0.020768 0.087726 0.257563 0.640735 1.386056 2.657147 4.842201
2025-06-01 0.014774 0.073916 0.238857 0.634442 1.437649 2.850580 5.338474
2025-06-08 0.009981 0.060617 0.217312 0.618230 1.469120 3.013688 5.799473
2025-06-15 0.007587 0.054455 0.212492 0.638273 1.573703 3.313192 6.508269
2025-06-22 0.004740 0.043311 0.189669 0.611997 1.582422 3.443494 6.941578
2025-06-29 0.003074 0.035825 0.174831 0.601921 1.623355 3.635942 7.495126
2025-07-06 0.001865 0.028901 0.158655 0.584676 1.646535 3.797065 8.004380
2025-07-13 0.001269 0.025271 0.152727 0.593893 1.729456 4.078290 8.744243
2025-07-20 0.000791 0.021328 0.143582 0.591953 1.786634 4.313661 9.414787
2025-07-27 0.000518 0.018735 0.138899 0.602396 1.874417 4.616372 10.226279
2025-08-03 0.000319 0.016182 0.132959 0.607649 1.950328 4.900400 11.018051
2025-08-10 0.000145 0.012523 0.118723 0.582119 1.946254 5.019146 11.503701